I’m a Jets fan.
By choice, not by birth.
Allow me to explain.
It didn’t start this way. As a kid it was all Dallas Cowboys. I even had a Cowboys themed bicycle at one point. The reason for that is simple, in pee-wee league football the Cowboys were the best. They were winners. Their uniforms were cool too.
Every kid wanted to play for the Cowboys, including me. My neighbor across the street was a linebacker and loved to tackle and tackle he did…everything and everyone in sight.
When I decided to try out, Dad didn’t mince words telling me “I wasn’t built for it” and “I should reconsider”. Nope, I wanted to be a Cowboy.
Try outs came and went, I did OK I guess, caught a couple passes but somehow I landed with the Oilers. Nobody wanted to play for the Oilers. The baby blue uniforms were hideous and they lost. They always lost.
The last kids picked (like me) got to select their uniform out of a pile of leftover numbers, mine was 81. A wide receiver number! I get to catch passes! Uh…No.
Little did I know I was destined for special teams, the coaches just hoping I didn’t get decapitated or blindsided by anyone bigger and/or taller (which was the other 99% of players).
I hung up my cleats after that first season, very disappointed. I will just stick to basketball, lack of height be damned. I will shoot the lights out. 89% from the free-throw line as a Freshman would be my sports pinnacle. Two years later I was bagging groceries at Winn-Dixie. Life happens fast!
Basketball passion aside, I always wanted an NFL team to call my own. Forget the Cowboys. My good friend was a Redskins fan. Bengals were the “closest” team, or maybe the Colts. No Thanks.
Later in life I briefly got on the Falcons bandwagon during the Glanville/Rison/Sanders era, but even then my heart wasn’t in it even though I was a lifelong Atlanta Braves fan.
At some point along the way I caught an interview with a quarterback. An NFL films interview complete with highlights and a finger in the air.
He had guaranteed victory in Super Bowl III and delivered. He was cool. The Steve McQueen version of a football player.
His name was Joe Namath. His team was the New York Jets.
Fast forward several years to around 2009. Everybody was either Peyton or Brady, but I was the exact opposite hoping the Rex Ryan Jets could finally get it done. I was alone and thus I was happy.
I had found my team.
Nobody bothered to tell me what I had bought into: Heartbreak.
When Rodgers went down four plays into MNF, I did not get angry. I didn’t get sad. I didn’t throw both hands in the air in total disbelief. I did none of the above.
Instead, I sat in total silence and shock at the sheer cruelty of it all. 6 months of hype and anticipation to be over in 75 seconds.
Four plays. Done.
Reminder to self what I had bought into choosing to wear the Green and White: Heartbreak.
Get ready for the haters to hate, for the “Season is Over” talk, for the “Jets being the Jets”. All arrived as expected on queue but a funny thing happened as I took it all in…
I didn’t take any of it in.
I reminded myself just how damn good this team is.
I reminded myself of the off season additions.
I reminded myself that chemistry is more powerful than talent. Luckily we are stacked with both.
I reminded myself the meaning of the word resilience.
This team will be fine.
They just took the express line through hell and won.
They are prepared for anything and everything.
That is a fitting prep for Fed week, as the inflation numbers from last week didn’t shock the world but also took the opportunity to say “I’m still here”:
The pesky Core MoM perking up was the last thing the Fed wanted to see:
I still don’t think it’s enough to force the Fed to raise next week, if anything they double down on the hawkish “pause” and prep markets for “one more” before year’s end.
Options expiration Friday or “Op-Ex” kept a tight lid on markets and entering Fed week we are on the verge of a sell signal barring any stick save:
If I could summarize a theme it would be: Sideways for Days.
The Fed will stand down, thoughts will drift toward earnings season and we will go… Sideways.
But I would also be ready for anything and everything.
Diary of a Bond Trader
One of my daily podcast listens RiskReversal hinted at the chance to be a bond trader with an upcoming “Battle of the Bonds” trading challenge.
I have always wanted to learn more about this area, and the CME in particular, so I signed up. I was given $100K paper play money and one week to trade bonds on the CME and learn more about the role bonds, rates and yield curve expectations play on a larger scale.
I was not disappointed and learned a TON. The CPI and PPI announcements wreaked HAVOC with the bond markets and I was shocked with the moves. I mostly played it safe with strategic plays on themes that aligned with my longer term thesis.
When the dust settled I finished 16th out of 2389 participants. I turned 100K into 131K in 5 days, but more importantly I gained invaluable insight into a part of the market I had yet to fully comprehend. Not sure I do still!
Thanks to the CME for this challenge and I look forward to the Equity futures challenge in late October. These challenges are a great way to hone your trading skills and ideas with zero risk.
The Compound is wrapping up Future Proof this weekend, I encourage you to tune in if you haven’t already.
Meantime, we wait for The Fed.
I will spare you the suspense. No hike.
Gonna let her simmer, end of summer, right here…
The Finance Stance 