Warmer than normal for this time of year sitting on the deck as I type these words, green too. The tree line in the distance looks more like late June than mid May.

A quick glance to my left and the water is eerily calm.

Outdoor garage lights from the new construction in Phase IV reflect on the water as does a slight break in the clouds that turns my gaze upward.

Is it too early to light the citronella? I could be here a while.

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Based on the inflation data out this week, I think we are inching ever so closer to the much anticipated “Pause”.

CPI read came in at 4.9%, below the 5% previous and consensus. Just be happy about the below part. MoM were in line.

Core remains stubbornly… stable?

I’ll save you any more commentary, it’s a Nothing Burger at this point. We are past it. The Fed has made progress, wants to get headline back to 2% but even they know that is not going to happen as quickly as they want it to. The pace of hikes are unprecedented, it’s time to let it simmer. I think we are there.

Markets meanwhile, ever the optimist, continue to stay at the top of the range. In all fairness, the 5/20 EMA buy signal flashed exiting March is still intact, but it’s on life support. RSI and MACD are both running out of steam:

The only thing lower than the VIX are trading volumes. Why is that?

Easy.

All eyes are on D.C.

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Rumor has it little progress has been made and a default could occur as soon as June 1. Does this look like progress to you?

Yeah, me neither.

Trump in all his glory has led his fellow Republicans to “do a default” unless Dems concede to massive spending cuts.

Jamie Dimon had his own thoughts on the matter and Trump earlier today. When Jamie talks, people listen. The EF Hutton of our day. If you have to Google it, that’s OK, I was like 12, but I distinctly remember the commercials.

I will occasionally update my blog post Dysfunction Junction with updates. Mainly so I document and have a record of the headlines if this blows up.

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As I normally do around this time of year, more time will be spent in the physical world than blog land. I may pass by my screen in early afternoon and take a peek as I grab a bottle of water and head back to basement finishing or landscape revamping.

If I see something worth talking about, I will definitely dedicate more evening deck time to penning those words.

As for now, I suggest we all keep an eye to the proceedings in DC and what credible Wall St. execs have to say about it, not former (and present) Presidents.