I will be first to admit, I am not a fan of surveys. You never really know the who, the how many, the source, how it was conducted and 10 other things, but the latest to hit my inbox was nevertheless a bit disturbing.

According to Bloomberg, “Personal Finance Optimism” is at decade lows. The article is short and sweet but when you see it graphically, it speaks loudly:

A steady climb right up to the pandemic and then a clear downtrend afterwards. It’s not so much the downtrend as much as the most recent dive that is more concerning.

If you pay attention to media outlets or even worse, social media feeds, the recent message has been consistent and clear: Inflation is here to stay.

Very few can even remember or have even seen what “real” inflation looks like:

The figure above is a bit dated but I refer back to it because it puts things in perspective.

When is the last time you waited in line for gas? Not for 2 minutes but 2 hours.

Gas is one thing, food is another. I have picked up on some things recently. Expiration dates are closer. I never really thought about that much, but after throwing some new items out recently because they had –already– expired is a clear sign less is moving off the shelves.

I mentioned the record levels of credit card debt and car payments in a recent post. These are all the types of things you see when the rubber band has simply been stretched too far. Recoil is a given. Envisioning that eventual recoil, combined with a barrage of endless media coverage on just how “bad it might be” feeds the pessimism.

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I didn’t watch or listen to any of Powell’s testimony today, I can’t stomach the political theatre of congressional cross examination. I do wonder if Elizabeth Warren’s EYES have gotten any BIGGER over the last few months, but still, not worth my time to watch and find out.

The message Powell delivered is the same: “More work to do”.

I didn’t expect the street to start pricing in a 50bps rate hike for March this soon, but it seems very plausible. Let’s wait and see what the CPI print next week has to say before jumping to that conclusion.

No doubt the inflation message is starting to weigh just as heavy as the prices if not more. I say that because there are more people talking about, worrying about, debating about…inflation…than I can ever recall. At least in my lifetime.

Consumer spending is still strong, but when you weigh that against survey results like those above, you have to wonder if that same consumer is also feeling a bit tired. The question is… tired of higher rates and prices? or… Tired of the message?

The remainder of this week will be about jobs. payrolls and earnings, followed by our next CPI read on Tuesday.

Before any of that we will have yet more Fed Speak tomorrow…

I seriously doubt I will be listening.

I am already tired of the message.